Crypto's Correlation With Fed Expectations Remains Elevated

Bitcoin's correlation with US real yields and short-term rate expectations has remained elevated through the first half of the year, according to research notes from Coinbase, NYDIG and 21Shares. The pattern has been most visible around Federal Reserve meetings and around softer than expected inflation prints.

That behaviour is consistent with the broader thesis that Bitcoin has continued to trade as a long-duration risk asset with additional idiosyncratic drivers. Ether has broadly tracked the same pattern, though with a beta that varies over time.

Portfolio managers continue to debate whether the correlation reflects a temporary macro regime or a structural feature of institutional participation.